On the Center for European Policy Analysis website, AHS speaker Jakub Grygiel explains why the war in Ukraine will not be settled by negotiations and is likely to see a further escalation of Russian military involvement:
"An unresolved territorial conflict will impede Ukraine’s westward march while at the same time it will be a violent reminder of Europe’s inability to deal with military threats, the Achilles’s heel of the post-modern political architecture built in Brussels."
"Putin is thus feared to be a shrewd competitor willing to use all forms of Russian power—from nuclear innuendo to a superiority in conventional forces to relentless information warfare—in order to build methodically a new regional order. In other words, he may be a geopolitical master. But there is another possibility."
"If Putin has lost Merkel—and it looks like he has—then Moscow may be a lot less cheery this holiday season. It’ll be tougher sledding for Putin in the days ahead."
"With a plan under way to modernize Russia's military over the next decade, Moscow has increasingly been willing to flex its armed muscle not only in Ukraine, but against other neighbors as well."